CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-01-20T09:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-01-20T09:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28649/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption on the Earth-facing disk stretching from S15E00 to S15E35, with liftoff starting around 2024-01-20T08:27Z. This CME overlaps with another filament eruption on the NE limb which resulted in CME:2024-01-20T09:36Z. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of this CME and the CME seen at 2024-01-21T00:36Z beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-23T00:13Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 978.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 576.654 Acceleration: 0.599487 Duration in seconds: 226145.31 Duration in days: 2.6174225 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 0.60 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 712.2 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 23/01/2024 Time: 00:13 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 27.82 hour(s)
Difference: -8.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-01-21T12:12Z
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